There is no Umar Gul and no Junaid Khan. And for reasons that are part of a bewildering spectrum, there is no Saeed Ajmal and no Mohammad Amir. Equally improbably there is Mohammad Irfan, 7ft 3inches tall, described by some batsmen as equal to playing a bowler on a trampoline. Between Irfan, Wahab Riaz and all the other bowlers put together there are 134 ODI wickets. Shahid Afridi alone has 393! These are hardworking bowlers not wizards or possessors of hoodoo. For the first time that I can remember, Pakistan’s bowling looks benign. It could almost be India’s!
And in a reversal of sorts, the batting looks more threatening. It should be built around three fine young batsmen but relies instead on two elderly gentlemen, each just either side of forty. Sarfaraz Ahmad, the wicket keeper has made a tremendous impression in his little time in international cricket. And while being completely unpredictable, Ahmed Shahzad and Umar Akmal can still win you matches. But their best limited overs batsman is still Misbah ul Huq who at 41 is capable of stopping at all stations on the way to his destination but can also clobber the fastest test century of all time! It is also a measure of how little some younger batsmen have progressed that Pakistan have gone back toYounis Khan, a truly wonderful test batsman but who tends to play at a rather ponderous pace in one-day cricket.
If Pakistan have to make an impact in this tournament, and therefore start well in the first game, they must get a big performance from Shahid Afridi. That is a worry in itself because his greatest value is as an unpredictable floater, capable of changing the game in an instant.
But more than anything else Pakistan are a product of the mood that resides in their camp. They don’t need to be friends, there could be a punch-up a few minutes before going out, but they need to believe they can win. In recent times, they haven’t convinced everyone that they take the field thinking that way.
I believe they will struggle against organised teams that bowl well. But even more than for India, I think the first game is crucial for them. If Pakistan win that, they might get the tailwinds to drive them forward in the tournament. If however, they lose on the 15th, I fear they might come apart.
Pakistan continues to be unpredictable and fascinating. But this time they are a bit more fragile than they normally are.
]]>Teams ideally want to play eight batsmen and six bowlers. Only Australia and New Zealand when at full strength, and on paper, Sri Lanka, can claim to have that heavenly balance. The others must juggle skills, punch above their weight. India are in that category because their strength, slow bowling and the ability to bat against it, is no longer a major factor.
India’s bowling is a worry. Umesh Yadav and Mohd Shami have the ability but not the consistency and in the sentence is a lesson for all of young India. They must lead the challenge with the ball but with their inconsistency they wouldn’t make it to a top team at the World Cup. This tournament is going to be about early wickets because that is still the best way to prevent a late over carnage. India aren’t doing that and so have little to block the customary late overs assault. It hasn’t helped that the admirable Bhuvaneshwar Kumar has been a shadow of himself; jogging in to bowl and bowling like he is jogging in. His injury has hampered him and he doesn’t look himself.
Spin is not only India’s forte; it is also Dhoni’s comfort zone. When the ball stops and turns, he is buzzing around as a captain. Field placements become precise, overs are sneaked in from part-time bowlers in front of shackled batsmen, he is like the puppeteer. But Australia’s pitches, like its people, are hardy and in your face. You have to tackle the pitches to get something out of it and India’s bowlers fall short there. They want the pitch to be a friend and to be a friend here, you have to put in a lot.
It means the batsmen will also be under pressure to score a few more. They could well do that if they get a start because this can be an extremely threatening batting line-up if they get it. But India’s batsmen, Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan and Suresh Raina, live on the edge. They can be thrilling, they can be match winners but they can leave quickly too. And that is why India depend so much on Virat Kohli, a potential great but rather too prone these days to go through scoring swings. Kohli in form, takes the pressure off everyone else and lifts this batting line-up. If there was only one item allowed on India’s wish-list, it would be the form of Kohli.
Ajinkya Rahane continues to impress, he could be one of the giants of the tournament, and you would back Dhoni to come good in a format in which he is among the greats. But that balance, which Yuvraj Singh provided in home conditions in2011 is a concern. Jadeja has to provide it. Or Stuart Binny. You wouldn’t pledge your inheritance on that.
Reaching the semi-final would be a good result, retaining the World Cup would merit a party that never ends.
]]>Everyone I have been talking to recently says you need experience at the World Cup. It is not to be confused with tired legs and spent minds. In Sri Lanka’s top four reside three of the most experienced players and two of them are in threatening form. Sangakkara is annoyed with Sri Lankan cricket but he has played his heart out in recent times and is in delectable form. It is fairly safe to say that if Sri Lanka go far he would have played a big hand.
A couple of years ago you wondered if Dilshan would last this long but not only has he lasted, he has played some key innings for Sri Lanka. This is not the Dilshan who teed off any more but he is still fit and scoring well. And even if Jayawardene has hit a bad patch leading into his last tournament, his class is proven and he can come good anytime. The Trimurti of Sri Lankan cricket would like to bid farewell in style.
They are lucky to have a vastly experienced and yet fairly young man following them in the order. Apart from Sangakkara, Angelo Mathews is the other vital element to Sri Lanka’s fortunes because he provides a seam bowling option and bats in the top six. For an Asian country that is a luxury and given that he is game to open the bowling that makes him invaluable. There is also a calmness abouthim, even when he is belting the ball at the end. Sri Lanka has invested very wisely in him.
Mathews and Thisara Perera provide the balance that sub-continent teams playing away rarely get. Perera might be a bit of this, a bit of that and not enough of either but because Sri Lanka have a wicket keeper and two bowling options in the top six, they can play him as a dangerous floater at number 7. To be honest, there isn’t a lot of batting to follow though Kulasekara is a better player than he often gets credit for and therefore it is imperative Sri Lanka bowl well. In New Zealand they were sometimes bowling 35 overs of spin and clearly that is not an optimal mix.
And so they will be looking towards Lasith Malinga. When fit, the yorker obeys hiscommand, when he isn’t, he can be knocked around because modern bats are very harsh on anything that isn’t the perfect yorker. He will probably play a role later in the tournament because he has far too little bowling behind him for a tournament of this value. But with Herath, Senanayake and Lakmal, it is ostensibly the best bowling side from the sub-continent.
I think Sri Lanka could become contenders if they start putting runs on the board consistently and that means Sangakkara and Mathews will be key. I am not sure they are favourites but they are bubbling under.
]]>So why now? Three quality batsmen, a fine seam bowling all-rounder, a dashing wicket keeper, a veteran spinner and fast bowling stocks that should be the envy of many countries. Ah yes, and the fact that at home they are seriously formidable! But can they play with this weight of expectation they haven’t experienced before? As underdog you can play with freedom but as contenders, will this freedom that has made them favourites desert them? It is one of many fascinating things to look forward to at this World Cup.
Kane Williamson is one of the brightest cricketing stars at the moment and, dare I say a bit like Hashim Amla, he hasn’t encountered failure recently. He slots in either side of Brendon McCullum and Ross Taylor and that is a fine triumvirate. Martin Guptill can be a match winner though he doesn’t always exercise that choice and with Corey Anderson and Luke Ronchi, ferocious lower order batsmen to follow, they have the right blend of solidity and belligerence.
Somewhere in between, New Zealand will call on Daniel Vettori, whose knees have received a dose of youth. He is a tough cricketer, anyone who bowls spin successfully there has to be tough, and nobody bowls ten overs more stingily than he does. It allows New Zealand to use their fine crop of seam and swing bowlers as attacking options. They have left handed bowlers in Trent Boult and Mitch McCleneghan, right handers in Tim Southee and Kyle Mills and plenty of pacefrom Adam Milne. A couple of players they didn’t pick, Jimmy Neesham and Matt Henry, would have found others to play for. That is always a good sign for a team.
For a team to win, it must possess match winners, players who can turn the tide when it gets tough, who on the big day, wade into a situation. That will be the big test for Williamson as indeed it will be for Anderson whose clean hitting on those small grounds, and steady bowling, will be a huge factor. And then there is McCullum whose astonishing test match batting in 2014 was accompanied by a very strange lull in one-day cricket. On the big day, you want McCullum in your side, not just as a breath-taking batsman but as an inventive captain.
New Zealand will qualify for the quarter-final which they will play in Wellington. I think it is safe to say there are a few teams who will want to avoid that game. That is the reputation New Zealand carry, for the first time, into a World Cup.
]]>Maybe it is because they play with a smile, maybe because their present is so fragile and their past so wondrous. Over twenty overs, where consistency, resilience and discipline are relatively lesser factors and where flair, courage and explosiveness matter, they are the team to fear. Add a few more overs and it seems that with every over their challenge gets diluted. My chemistry teacher would have said they are like acetic acid; acid in name but only just.
I did a little exercise to see who would lead their challenge and I struggled beyond the enigmatic and sadly unpredictable Marlon Samuels, himself a player of enormous ability but with a whimsical streak about him. Who else? Chris Gayle, a mere flicker these days over 50 overs where he can be a lighthouse in a 20 over game. There is a shudder when he walks out there, he generates no more than a quiver in the longer form. If the West Indies have to be a force, they have to be defined by the joyous brutality of his batting.
The West Indies could have been a force if Gayle and Samuels had laid the platform for Bravo, Pollard, Sammy and Russell to light up the game. But two of those are gone, the explanations given were a very poor camouflage for the real reason, and the other two have too much to do, something that seems beyond them.
The bowling with Kemar Roach, Jerome Taylor and an emerging Sheldon Cottrell is quite capable without being scary but it doesn’t help that the new captain, the rather raw Jason Holder, hasn’t yet become the bowler some of us thought he would. And therein lies another issue. The captain doesn’t command a place, in turbulent winds he isn’t the shelter, and if fingers do get pointed at him, as they inevitably will in sport, he has nowhere to look. He will in course of time become the seam bowling all-rounder but only if the tides in West Indies cricket take him there.
Currently you look at the West Indies and you notice who isn’t there. That is always a worry. I will be delighted, but surprised, if the West Indies create a major impact on this World Cup. Against teams that don’t bowl well, they might chase down a target but you wouldn’t be certain of it.Maybe then, they just need to laugh their worries off, maybe Darren Sammy can lead that, and play it like one big 20 over game.
]]>In what I believe could be a bowler’s World Cup, England have one of the best, if not the best, user of the new ball in limited overs cricket. Forget his demeanour a moment but James Anderson is the bowler every team wants with the new ball in his hand at the start of a big match. In support he has Stuart Broad and Steven Finn, both almost tailormade for Australia and in Chris Woakes, they have a lively, very English, bowler who they rate with the bat. He is the bowling all-rounder, the entity every team is craving for.
Two players help them get the right balance. Moeen Ali’s presence at the top of the order might still be work in progress but he is now a solid 10 overs bowler. One of those and a wicket keeper in the top six and you have the foundation of a well balanced team. Yes, in the top six, because there is no way the talent of Jos Buttler can be wasted at number seven. I’ll go so far as to say no team in the world would bat him at seven. He is a potential match winner currently being stifled by a theory that England never seem far away from.
But if you hesitate to cast England among the favourites, it is because key positions are filled by unfulfilled talents. Top of that list, and top of the order is Ian Bell who, after 150 games, is still looking for a permanent spot. He is as good as any player in the world and now has the right position. Steven Finn and Eoin Morgan are the others. By now both should have been consistent match winners. But Morgan is cast in the role of the exotic finisher when he could be the player around whom everyone bats. We saw that when he had to come in early against Australia in the tri-series. And Finn is the most inexplicable of them all. A genuine fast bowler of his height bowling after Anderson would have been perfect for England but Finn is the victim of many wrong turns. He is bowling well again but at much reduced pace.
I believe England can threaten at the World Cup but I don’t know if they believe in it themselves.
]]>And so in Australia, where they made such an emotional entry, and a gut-wrenching exit, in 1992, they have the opportunity to win and to overcome. They arrive with the best top six in limited overs cricket and whether Quentin de Kock plays or RileeRoussow does, the star cast of du Plessis, Duminy, Miller and the incomparables, Amla and de Villiers is unmatched. The bowling might have just come off its peak and they don’t quite have the kind of all-rounders they always did, but it is still a formidable hurdle.
Hashim Amla has been the superstar of understatement. He scores hundreds for fun, hardly ever wipes the sweat off his brow and never, simply never, does anything undignified. I watch him play and I wonder if pressure means anything to him and that is why, to my mind, he is the man to take them to their first World Cup. Around him might be more emotional folk but Amla looks like he has arrived, almost spiritually so.
From a purely cricketing point of view, his extraordinary solidity at the top allows everyone else to play freely and almost inevitably allows the genius of AB de Villiers to express itself. For it is genius. If Amla is the calm, gentle breeze, de Villiers is the tornado and while South Africa have had some wonderful batsmen over the years it is debatable whether they have ever, in limited overs cricket at any rate, had such pedigree at the top.
Duminy will have to provide the balance with the ball as well because that is a slight problem area for South Africa who like the idea of playing seven batsmen and tend to put Behardien in. The ten overs between those two could be an area of vulnerability unless South Africa feels they can go with Wayne Parnell at number 7 and play five bowlers.
Dale Steyn might have come off his peak in terms of pace (unless of course he is saving up for the World Cup) but he remains the best fast bowler in the world. It is arguable that he is a better test bowler but around him Morkel is inconsistent and Philander but steady. Their big plus though is the arrival of Imran Tahir who has surprised a few in world cricket.
With Australia, they are the best constructed team in the world. If they overcome themselves they should fancy their chances.
]]>Finch and Warner, two gunslingers, you never know who shoots first. Each is a match winner though I suspect Finch has been given the innings building role while Warner tees off. It is as it should be for Finch has the greater gravity as a person too. Watson is the preferred number three and you can see why for he has opened the batting well and hits powerfully. Australia don’t like to dawdle, they know they bat deep and so there is the licence to play shots early.
With these three above and Maxwell, Marsh and Haddin below, Australia have to choose two between Smith, Clarke and Bailey. Smith has the ability to become a great player because he is extremely innovative but can play at run a ball without apparent risk. I saw him in the tri series and was reminded of how Azharuddin played. Hardly a boundary but a run a ball fifty! I think Smith and Clarke bring substance to the innings, they link the dashers at the top with the finishers below. And both are genuinely world class even in the shorter game.
It isn’t yet clear how much of a role Faulker will play but in Maxwell, Marsh and him teams will sweat on the final score. Teams would be happy with one of those and Australia will play two with Haddin and Mitchell Johnson thrown in.
With the new rules you need pace and Australia have lots of it in Johnson, Cummins and Starc with young Hazlewood nippier than he seems. Add Faulker, Watson and Marsh and you have three seam bowling all-rounders; a luxury no other team has. And like all Australian sides they will make totals seem larger in the field. Put Maxwell, Warner and Smith in the outfield and you will be hard pressed to find a better unit.
So how do you beat Australia? Maybe on a slow wicket, if you find one. But maybe by waiting for their supreme confidence, which is often just a step away from arrogance, to derail them. You will have to be a very good bowling side to beat them and there aren’t a lot around.
]]>